President Obama’s address to the nation Monday night was out of sync. It was too little, too late, showing that he’s lost control of the debt crisis, and at the same time demonstrating that Congress is now in charge.

From the beginning of the debt-ceiling negotiations, it was clear that Obama was betting his bottom dollar on the Grand Bargain, or as Mexican politician Jorge Castañeda would say, the Whole Enchilada, as a means of guaranteeing his reelection. From all indications, he has lost.

With congressional leaders now in control, there will be a deal this week, barely in time to meet the Aug. deadline. It’s tough to say if the deal that emerges will be sufficient to avert a downgrade, but as of Tuesday morning it seems clear that House Speaker John Boehner and Senate majority leader Harry Reid will garner enough votes on a compromise pact that will prevent a shutdown.

It’s easy to pinpoint the precise moment when Obama lost the game. It was his TV address Friday night, moments after talks faltered and Boehner walked out yet again. The speech accomplished was the White House team and the president never suspected: it united everyone else against the administration. The rookies were out the door and the old guard was in, ready and able to assume command.

At the outset of the debt crisis, many thought that the Grand Bargain, namely US$4 trillion in cuts, was achievable. After all, such a deal would seriously reduce the sprawling debt problem. And, it would mean sufficient additional revenue –at least US$800 billion—to offset painful cuts in social welfare and othet types of assistance programs.

Obama’s bet was that with the Big Enchilada, he would win over a decent amount of independent voters, most of whom gravitate towards the center. At the same time, Republicans would get their cherished reduction in the size of the government.

The Whole Enchilada failed because there simply weren’t enough votes in Congress to pass it. Too many vested interests at stake. Democrats were adamantly against any type of cut to the social welfare programs, not because they truly worry about the poor but because it would have meant too many votes; and Republicans plum refuse any tax hikes, something that is a handy electoral banner.

Ultimately, the depletion of the White House economic advisory ranks played a key role in the demise of the Whole Enchilada. The Obama negotiating team conducted a process that was doomed to fail. Witness, for example, that neither Obama nor Boehner put their bargaining positions or proposals on paper. It was mystifying to watch how one day Obama was fine with an US$800 billion revenue increase, only to come back the next with a demand for an additional US$400 billion. I mean, did anyone at the White House really know what they were doing?

Even the media were confused. At some point, even congressional aides –usually people in the know—could not decipher who was offering what. Democrats kept their own proposals thickly veiled, and Republicans did likewise. The result was suspicion, despair and an utter lack of confidence, not to mention hurt feelings, keeping in line with the famed hypersensitivity of politicians.

David Brooks of The New York Times notes that with his address Friday night, “the president lost his cool”. His appearance, says Brooks, “was suffused with that ‘I’m the only mature person in Washington’ condescension that drives everybody else crazy. Obama lectured the leaders of the House and Senate in the sort of patronizing tone that a junior high principal might use with immature delinquents. He talked about unreturned phone calls and being left at the altar, personalizing the issue like a spurned prom date”.

By unintentionally bringing Congressional leaders together, it’s plain that the whole negotiating environment has changed. Now, it’s more probable than ever that a deal will be reached this week. It may not be the best possible deal, but it will be one that was achievable.

It’s a brand new ballgame. To kick the week off, both Boehner and Reid came up with specific proposals. The timeline is that while both plans are different, they can be honed and complemented, and that’s what they’ll be doing Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

In all probability, both houses of Congress will work through the weekend to see a final deal through, with the White House on the sidelines just waiting to see and sign in the knick of time.

The joke in Mexico these days is that Mexican legislators are thoroughly exhausted from watching all that legislative activity in Washington, and will probably ask for an extraordinary vacation.

rmena@eleconomista.com.mx